Donald Trump Poll News

Dick Morris to Newsmax: GOP Senate 'Sweep' Possible (Newsmax/"Rob Schmitt")

By Jack Gournell | Monday, 10 October 2022 08:34 PM EDT

A Republican "sweep" of the Senate is possible in November, political analyst and author Dick Morris tells Newsmax.

Morris, the author of "The Return: Trump's Big 2024 Comeback," said Monday on Newsmax's "Rob Schmitt Tonight" that polling he has been involved with shows some of the "sleeper races" leaning to the GOP candidates.

The Senate is currently in control of the Democrats with each party holding 50 seats and Vice President Kamala Harris holding the tie-breaking vote. But Morris sees three GOP candidates — Dr. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, Blake Masters in Arizona and Herschel Walker in Georgia — as the keys to turning the tide.

Republican turnout is vital, Morris said.

"Abortion was providing some [enthusiasm] for Democrats, but that's kind of fading now, and I think that we may have a real Republican sweep," he said.

Oz, Masters and Walker all are being outspent, but are catching up, he said, adding that the Senate is likely to remain 50-50 if Oz loses his race to current Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman.

But "If Oz wins, as I think he can, and we picked up at least one of those other two seats like Masters I think that we can in and we'll win with 52 or 53 seats," Morris said. "But I want to stress that it is possible this year to just clean up. We could win all of these races because the polling is so pro-Democrat in its bias."

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Original Article

Georgia Potential Indicator? Why GOP Could Win Big in November (Newsmax)

By Allan H. Ryskind | Monday, 10 October 2022 06:27 PM EDT

Can Republicans win a wave election this November as frequently happens in midterm contests?

When the GOP ran against President Bill Clinton's high-tax, big-spend record in his first two years on the job, the party picked up eight Senate seats and 52 House seats in 1994.

The elections marked the first time Republicans controlled the Senate since 1985 and the House since 1955. The result: Clinton moved sharply to the right on domestic politics, ditching big-government programs and embracing Reaganomics.

The GOP lost 40 House seats in the 2018 midterm when President Donald Trump was in the White House, hinting at the Democrat presidential victory just two years later. The consensus among seasoned pollsters today is the GOP will capture the House by a small margin but fail in its attempt to win the Senate. In other words, no wave election.

But a major GOP victory this November is still not out of the question.

Surveys show the electorate seems more dismayed by the President Joe Biden economy than any of the issues Democrats are raising. Moreover, Biden's historically low ratings are a clear drag on the Democrat ticket nationwide.

When asked in the mid-September ABC News/Washington Post poll to choose their most important issue, 61% of voters had the same concerns as Republicans: The economy, inflation and crime. Only 35% of the electorate sided with the Democrats' top issues: abortion and climate change.

Swing voters, as GOP guru Karl Rove noted, are not siding with the Democrats either. In a recent New York Times survey, 54% of independents claimed the "most important" issues for them were economic, while only 27% chose abortion, guns, or democracy – topics foremost on the lips of the president and major Democrat candidates.

What also gives Republicans hope is a little noted survey of their party's chances in Georgia by The Atlantic Journal-Constitution, which had a history of lining up with Democrat presidential nominees before it dropped endorsing candidates altogether in 2020.

The paper's findings were a bitter blow to Democrat power players in the Peach State – especially to Stacey Abrams whose Herculean effort to register likely Democrat voters was considered key to the victory of both the state's Democrat senators in 2020 and Biden's 12,000-vote squeaker over Trump.

Abrams had been signing up Democrat voters in such prodigious numbers that Republican experts on voting patterns voiced alarm she was likely to single-handedly deal another devastating loss to the GOP in November.

The AJC's Greg Bluestein then delivered the stunningly bad news to buoyant Georgia Democrats with the headline: "GOP leads in most races, poll finds. Close Senate race one of the only bright spots for Georgia Dems in Survey."

But even that Senate race showed former football star and Republican nominee Herschel Walker defeating radical incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., a man with ex-wife problems and a fan of Fidel Castro, 46% to 44%. (The poll was taken before the abortion accusations against Walker.) Republican nominees for lieutenant governor, attorney general, and secretary of state had double-digit leads over their Democrat challengers.

GOP Gov. Brian Kemp led Abrams in her second attempt to win the governor's mansion 50% to 42%, enough to avoid a runoff in December if that number holds. Abrams' chances were hardly helped when Judge Steven Jones essentially threw out her complaint she lost her first run against Kemp because she alleged Georgia's election laws violated the U.S. Constitution and the federal Voting Rights Act.

Jones, an Obama appointee, specifically said they violated neither.

Here is some other bad news Bluestein served up for the Democrats:

• A majority of likely Georgia voters (54%) favor Kemp's handling of his job.
• 51% want the Republicans to win control of Congress.
• Another 71% say the country is on the wrong track, a measuring stick that normally spells deep trouble for the president's party.
• Just 37% approve of Biden's performance in office, "statistically unchanged since the last AJC poll in July," and one of the first public polls in Georgia since Biden began winning congressional approval of such programs as forgiving student college debt.

Bluestein then added this crushing conclusion: "With less than 50 days until the election, there's little time to reverse the trend."

What is also striking is the Republican leader in the Senate, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., is no longer a pessimist about winning back the majority. At a private fundraiser for J.D. Vance, the GOP Senate nominee from Ohio, McConnell said he expected his party to hold on in Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina, then naming Nevada and Georgia as the best pick-up opportunities.

The New York Times' Oct. 4 edition more than backed McConnell's view about Nevada.

Nevada Democrats, the Times wrote, are bracing for severe losses "up and down the ballot," a seismic shift "that could help Republicans win both houses of Congress." The Times then piled on: Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., "remains one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents in the country."

Gov. Steve Sisolak "is fighting his most formidable challenger yet [Adam Laxalt], who Rove says "led in all five September [RealClear Politics] polls."] And the state's three House Democrats "could all lose their seats." The Democrat machine that thrived under the late Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev., the Times added, "is staring down the most significant spate of losses in more than a decade."

The major reason: "Worries over inflation and the economy overshadow nearly every other concern, particularly for the working class and Latino voters the party has long ago counted on."

Latinos still favor the Democrats nationwide, but Republicans are making major inroads. A Siena survey, writes Rich Lowry in the New York Post, shows Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., Republicans running for reelection in Florida, are "above 50% among Hispanics."

Hillary Clinton carried the Hispanic American community in Miami-Dade County by 30 points, Biden by only 7.

Surveys of Hispanics, especially of those who are here legally, are appalled by Biden's open-door policy to illegals at the border. Rep. Myra Flores, R-Texas, the first Hispanic in 150 years to represent the 34th Congressional District in the Rio Grande Valley, has called for the impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas for failing to control the border. Fifty-two percent of Hispanic likely voters, according to two new Rasmussen polls, are doing "too little to reduce illegal border crossings."

Whether the Republicans will win big Nov. 8 is far from certain. And how badly the Walker bombshell might harm the entire GOP ticket in Georgia is, as of this moment, unknown.

But the good news is Republicans need to capture a net of just six seats in the House for Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., to replace House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif.

And it will take just a net pickup of just one to get a majority in the Senate.

Rove is fairly comfortable about claiming the GOP is likely to win the House. Here is what he says about the Senate: "My gut tells me the GOP will prevail 51-49 because of the political climate, issues, and midterm swing."

Still, he hedges his bet by observing that key races are still up in the air and the next few weeks "will be rocky and Nov. 8 a long night."

Allan H. Ryskind, a former editor and owner of "Human Events," a favorite publication of Ronald Reagan, is the author of "Hollywood Traitors," a history of how Stalinist screenwriters came close to capturing the movie industry.

Original Article

Georgia Potential Indicator? Why GOP Could Win Big in November (Newsmax)

By Allan H. Ryskind | Monday, 10 October 2022 06:27 PM EDT

Can Republicans win a wave election this November as frequently happens in midterm contests?

When the GOP ran against President Bill Clinton's high-tax, big-spend record in his first two years on the job, the party picked up eight Senate seats and 52 House seats in 1994.

The elections marked the first time Republicans controlled the Senate since 1985 and the House since 1955. The result: Clinton moved sharply to the right on domestic politics, ditching big-government programs and embracing Reaganomics.

The GOP lost 40 House seats in the 2018 midterm when President Donald Trump was in the White House, hinting at the Democrat presidential victory just two years later. The consensus among seasoned pollsters today is the GOP will capture the House by a small margin but fail in its attempt to win the Senate. In other words, no wave election.

But a major GOP victory this November is still not out of the question.

Surveys show the electorate seems more dismayed by the President Joe Biden economy than any of the issues Democrats are raising. Moreover, Biden's historically low ratings are a clear drag on the Democrat ticket nationwide.

When asked in the mid-September ABC News/Washington Post poll to choose their most important issue, 61% of voters had the same concerns as Republicans: The economy, inflation and crime. Only 35% of the electorate sided with the Democrats' top issues: abortion and climate change.

Swing voters, as GOP guru Karl Rove noted, are not siding with the Democrats either. In a recent New York Times survey, 54% of independents claimed the "most important" issues for them were economic, while only 27% chose abortion, guns, or democracy – topics foremost on the lips of the president and major Democrat candidates.

What also gives Republicans hope is a little noted survey of their party's chances in Georgia by The Atlantic Journal-Constitution, which had a history of lining up with Democrat presidential nominees before it dropped endorsing candidates altogether in 2020.

The paper's findings were a bitter blow to Democrat power players in the Peach State – especially to Stacey Abrams whose Herculean effort to register likely Democrat voters was considered key to the victory of both the state's Democrat senators in 2020 and Biden's 12,000-vote squeaker over Trump.

Abrams had been signing up Democrat voters in such prodigious numbers that Republican experts on voting patterns voiced alarm she was likely to single-handedly deal another devastating loss to the GOP in November.

The AJC's Greg Bluestein then delivered the stunningly bad news to buoyant Georgia Democrats with the headline: "GOP leads in most races, poll finds. Close Senate race one of the only bright spots for Georgia Dems in Survey."

But even that Senate race showed former football star and Republican nominee Herschel Walker defeating radical incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., a man with ex-wife problems and a fan of Fidel Castro, 46% to 44%. (The poll was taken before the abortion accusations against Walker.) Republican nominees for lieutenant governor, attorney general, and secretary of state had double-digit leads over their Democrat challengers.

GOP Gov. Brian Kemp led Abrams in her second attempt to win the governor's mansion 50% to 42%, enough to avoid a runoff in December if that number holds. Abrams' chances were hardly helped when Judge Steven Jones essentially threw out her complaint she lost her first run against Kemp because she alleged Georgia's election laws violated the U.S. Constitution and the federal Voting Rights Act.

Jones, an Obama appointee, specifically said they violated neither.

Here is some other bad news Bluestein served up for the Democrats:

• A majority of likely Georgia voters (54%) favor Kemp's handling of his job.
• 51% want the Republicans to win control of Congress.
• Another 71% say the country is on the wrong track, a measuring stick that normally spells deep trouble for the president's party.
• Just 37% approve of Biden's performance in office, "statistically unchanged since the last AJC poll in July," and one of the first public polls in Georgia since Biden began winning congressional approval of such programs as forgiving student college debt.

Bluestein then added this crushing conclusion: "With less than 50 days until the election, there's little time to reverse the trend."

What is also striking is the Republican leader in the Senate, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., is no longer a pessimist about winning back the majority. At a private fundraiser for J.D. Vance, the GOP Senate nominee from Ohio, McConnell said he expected his party to hold on in Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina, then naming Nevada and Georgia as the best pick-up opportunities.

The New York Times' Oct. 4 edition more than backed McConnell's view about Nevada.

Nevada Democrats, the Times wrote, are bracing for severe losses "up and down the ballot," a seismic shift "that could help Republicans win both houses of Congress." The Times then piled on: Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., "remains one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents in the country."

Gov. Steve Sisolak "is fighting his most formidable challenger yet [Adam Laxalt], who Rove says "led in all five September [RealClear Politics] polls."] And the state's three House Democrats "could all lose their seats." The Democrat machine that thrived under the late Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev., the Times added, "is staring down the most significant spate of losses in more than a decade."

The major reason: "Worries over inflation and the economy overshadow nearly every other concern, particularly for the working class and Latino voters the party has long ago counted on."

Latinos still favor the Democrats nationwide, but Republicans are making major inroads. A Siena survey, writes Rich Lowry in the New York Post, shows Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., Republicans running for reelection in Florida, are "above 50% among Hispanics."

Hillary Clinton carried the Hispanic American community in Miami-Dade County by 30 points, Biden by only 7.

Surveys of Hispanics, especially of those who are here legally, are appalled by Biden's open-door policy to illegals at the border. Rep. Myra Flores, R-Texas, the first Hispanic in 150 years to represent the 34th Congressional District in the Rio Grande Valley, has called for the impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas for failing to control the border. Fifty-two percent of Hispanic likely voters, according to two new Rasmussen polls, are doing "too little to reduce illegal border crossings."

Whether the Republicans will win big Nov. 8 is far from certain. And how badly the Walker bombshell might harm the entire GOP ticket in Georgia is, as of this moment, unknown.

But the good news is Republicans need to capture a net of just six seats in the House for Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., to replace House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif.

And it will take just a net pickup of just one to get a majority in the Senate.

Rove is fairly comfortable about claiming the GOP is likely to win the House. Here is what he says about the Senate: "My gut tells me the GOP will prevail 51-49 because of the political climate, issues, and midterm swing."

Still, he hedges his bet by observing that key races are still up in the air and the next few weeks "will be rocky and Nov. 8 a long night."

Allan H. Ryskind, a former editor and owner of "Human Events," a favorite publication of Ronald Reagan, is the author of "Hollywood Traitors," a history of how Stalinist screenwriters came close to capturing the movie industry.

OAN Newsroom
UPDATED 10:58 AM PT – Monday, October 10, 2022

45th President Donald J. Trump slammed Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) for not introducing legislation prohibiting Congress members from trading stocks before the midterm elections.

In a recent statement at a rally in Mesa, Arizona, Trump said that the Democrat’s stock portfolio is better than the multi-billionaire Warren Buffet’s. Trump added that Democrat policies have caused not only declining stocks but also have caused inflation and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

The former President mentioned that Pelosi must lose her re-election in order for the United States to achieve economic prosperity.

“We don’t want crime, we want a strong military, we want low taxes, we want a great education, and we’re going to end the crazy Nancy Pelosi’s political career once and for all,” he said.

Experts say that Republicans will likely take control of the House and will remove Pelosi as Speaker following the midterm elections.

Original Article Oann

OAN Newsroom
UPDATED 10:38 AM PT – Monday, October 10, 2022

Republican candidate for Arizona Governor, Kari Lake, was removed from a town hall debate ahead of her opponent’s speech.

Reports say that Lake was seated in the front row of Saturday’s town hall when she was asked to leave. This allegedly occurred right before her Democrat opponent Kate Hobbs took the stage.
Both candidates were scheduled to speak separately, without a debate.

This comes as Hobbs continues to avoid debating Lake. Hobbs claims that Lake is a “conspiracy theorist” for questioning outcomes of 2020 elections.
Lake later tweeted that the people of Arizona deserve a debate and that they deserve better.

Original Article Oann

Trump Lawyer Bobb: Other Attorneys Involved in Classified Docs Case (Newsmax)

By Fran Beyer | Monday, 10 October 2022 01:54 PM EDT

Christina Bobb, a lawyer who certified all sensitive records in former President Donald Trump's possession that had been returned to the government, reportedly told federal investigators that two other Trump attorneys were involved with the case.

NBC News, citing three unnamed sources, said a certification statement signed by Bobb on June 3 indicated Trump was in compliance with a May grand jury subpoena and that he didn't have classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida.

Bobb gave her testimony Friday in Washington, and spoke to federal investigators — information that could play a big role in the probe of Trump's possession of records he allegedly shouldn't have.

"People made [Bobb] the fall guy — or fall gal, for what it's worth — and it's wrong," a source told NBC News. "Yes, she signed the declaration. No one disputes that. But what she signed is technically accurate … The people who told her to sign it should know better."

According to NBC News, court documents show that after Department of Justice officials were given Bobb's statement, the FBI determined her certification was untrue — leading to the Aug. 8 seizure of more than 103 more records with classification markings.

Bobb told investigators she didn't draft the statement, but had been told to do so by Trump's lead lawyer at the time, Evan Corcoran, who wrote it, NBC News reported.

Bobb also spoke to investigators about Trump legal adviser Boris Epshteyn, who she said didn't help draft the statement but was minimally involved in discussions about the records, the news outlet reported.

Epshteyn's cellphone was reportedly seized last month.

According to NBC News, before Bobb signed the certification, she insisted it be rewritten with a disclaimer that said she was certifying Trump had no more records "based upon the information that has been provided to me." Bobb identified the person who gave her that "information" as Corcoran, the news outlet reported.

"She had to insist on that disclaimer twice before she signed it," one source told NBC News about Bobb. "She is not criminally liable. She is not going to be charged. She is not pointing fingers. She is simply a witness for the truth."

Though the certification said a "diligent search was conducted" for records requested in a May 11 grand jury subpoena, and that all relevant requested records were turned over, an Aug. 31 DOJ court filing raised doubts.

"That the FBI, in a matter of hours, recovered twice as many documents with classification markings as the 'diligent search' that the former President's counsel and other representatives had weeks to perform calls into serious question the representations made in the June 3 certification and casts doubt on the extent of cooperation in this matter," the DOJ wrote, NBC News reported.

Original Article

Jan. 6 Panel Member: Ginni Thomas Testimony Might Not Be Needed (Newsmax)

By Charlie McCarthy | Monday, 10 October 2022 01:03 PM EDT

There's no guarantee testimony from Ginni Thomas, wife of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, will be presented at the next public hearing of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's partisan Jan. 6 panel, one committee member said.

Rep. Zoe Lofgren, D-Calif., a member of the select committee investigating events surrounding the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack, said Sunday that the panel might not feature testimony from Ginni Thomas at Thursday's hearing, and added that she did not consider the justice's wife "a key figure."

"We may," Lofgren told MSNBC Sunday when asked if Ginni Thomas' testimony would be featured at the hearing.

The ambiguous response came after the panel — comprised of Democrats and two anti-Trump Republicans — interviewed Ginni Thomas on Sept. 29 after the committee sought an interview for months.

Lofgren said Thomas' interview was not videotaped, as were interviews with some other witnesses in previous hearings. Any featured testimony from Thomas, therefore, would be shown through a transcript.

"It was just the agreement reached with her, and I think it was suitable from all sides," Lofgren told MSNBC.

Lofgren said the committee's interview with Thomas was "lengthy."

"I don't think she was a key figure necessarily; she had very mistaken views," Lofgren said. "We all know that there is no evidence of massive fraud in the election.

"But she has a belief system that she apparently still holds, although she did also express some doubts during the interview. So it was important that we talk to her because of the email exchanges, but I don't think she was a major player in this, personally."

The committee sought to interview Ginni Thomas to investigate her role in trying to help former President Donald Trump overturn his election defeat. She texted with White House chief of staff Mark Meadows and contacted lawmakers in Arizona and Wisconsin in the weeks after the election.

She reportedly also exchanged emails with John Eastman, a lawyer who had advised then-President Trump on attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election.

Ginni Thomas in June told the Daily Caller that she "can't wait to clear up misconceptions" if called on to provide testimony before the House committee.

Democrats have called on Justice Thomas to recuse himself from any cases connected with Jan. 6 due to his wife's alleged actions.

The Associated Press contributed to this story.

Original Article

Poll: More Dems Concerned About Biden's Mental Missteps President Joe Biden (Getty Images)

By Fran Beyer | Monday, 10 October 2022 12:55 PM EDT

Democrats are beginning to have concerns about President Joe Biden's latest mental missteps, a new poll shows.

According to an Issues & Insights/TIPP survey, worries about the nearly 79-year-old commander-in-chief's mental state have jumped from 59% to 64% in just two months.

Most of the increase has come from Democrats, the pollster pointed out.

"Virtually all of October's gain came from Democrats, who went from just 39% expressing 'concern' over Biden's mental health in August, a high number in itself, to 52% in the latest poll," Issues & Insights editor Terry Jones wrote. "Let that sink in: A majority of Democrats now also think Biden possibly has mental health issues."

An early August survey showed 59% overall said they were worried about Biden's mental health. The responses included 82% of Republicans, 56% of independents, and 39% of Democrats.

The latest poll was taken from Oct.5-7, with the same question asked — but the overall number grew to 64%. The latest survey has a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points.

"Recent video snippets show Biden wandering off stage, apparently lost, after speaking briefly; forgetting the name of the Declaration of Independence, the nation's founding document; not remembering that a congresswoman he was honoring at a ceremony was in fact dead, asking Where's Jackie (Walorski)?'; invoking the possibility of nuclear 'Armageddon' after Vladimir Putin's military suffered setbacks in Ukraine; and so on," Jones wrote.

The issue has been already noted by one medical professional.

"The best way to approach Biden's apparent multiple memory lapses and periods of disorientation is not to speculate based on video clips alone but to demand full disclosure and transparency, especially of a president almost 80 years old with a significant medical history," Dr. Marc Siegel, a professor of medicine at New York University, wrote in a recent commentary.

"If he decides to run again, I'm on record demanding full health transparency of all candidates for higher office, tracing back to when John McCain was 71 and running for president in 2008," Siegal added. "I called it 'the McCain Protocol' in 2016 when both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton were over 70 and running for president."

Jones wrote the new survey suggests "it may be time for Biden to undergo a mental competency test, as former President Donald Trump did — and passed."

Original Article

Poll: Nearly 40 Percent of GOP Voters Likely to Blame Fraud If Party Loses Midterms (Newsmax)

By Charlie McCarthy | Monday, 10 October 2022 11:46 AM EDT

Nearly 40% of Republicans are likely to blame voter fraud if the GOP doesn't win control of Congress in the midterms, according to a new Axios-Ipsos survey.

When asked "If your party does not win control of Congress, how likely are you to blame election fraud?" Republicans and Democrats offered very different responses in the Axios-Ipsos Two Americas Index Poll.

A total of 39% of Republican respondents say they likely will blame voter fraud, 36% say they are unlikely, and 26% do not know.

Among Democrats, 25% said it's likely they'll blame voter fraud, 60% say it's unlikely, and 15% do not know.

Voters will go to the polls on Nov. 8 to decide which major party will control the House and Senate.

Republicans have been favored to regain control of the House, with Politico on Sunday reporting that a tight race exists for winning a Senate majority.

Interestingly, the survey found that voters who have shared at least one meal with someone from the opposite party in the last month are less likely to claim election fraud caused their losses.

"When you have connections across the aisle with other people, you're less likely to give in to or even entertain some of the 'crazy,' " Ipsos Senior Vice President Chris Jackson said, Axios reported.

"There are so few of those connections remaining, and that lack of connection contributes the space for people to believe the 'big lie,' and that elections are going to be stolen and all those kinds of things. Because they're believing it about someone they've never met."

The Axios-Ipsos poll found that 43% of respondents said former President Donald Trump is unfairly targeted by the left, while 45% disagreed.

Survey results also showed that most (65%) independents feel they have little to nothing in common with either major party.

A total of 30% of Americans say they feel hope when thinking about midterms, while 17% feel dread, the next most frequently cited emotion.

The Axios-Ipsos poll was conducted Sept. 28-29 among 1,004 adults from the continental U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

Original Article

Poll Shows GOP's Dixon Closing In on Whitmer in Michigan (Newsmax)

By Fran Beyer | Monday, 10 October 2022 10:42 AM EDT

Tudor Dixon, the GOP challenger to Michigan Democrat Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, is closing the gap in the high-profile race, a new CBS News-YouGov poll shows.

The recent survey showed Whitmer with a 6-point lead in her reelection bid against Dixon — smaller than recent polls that gave the governor a double-digit lead over Dixon, who has the backing of former President Donald Trump.

The new poll put Whitmer ahead with 53% of likely Michigan voters, while Dixon was backed by 47%.

The poll showed that while moderate voters tend to prefer Whitmer over Dixon, their concerns about the economy may be pivotal on Election Day.

"It's the economy that's more on the minds of Michigan voters than the coronavirus, and most of them rate the state's economy negatively (although better than the nation's). Half of voters are expecting the U.S. to be in recession next year, perhaps leaving some room for Dixon to gain ground," the pollsters wrote.

"And by two to one, more voters think Biden's policies have hurt, rather than helped Michigan's economy. This suggests that further nationalization of this race, and making it a referendum on Democrats nationally, could help Dixon."

Women overwhelmingly back Gretchen Whitmer's campaign, giving her a 19-point boost over Dixon, with abortion being the top issue for women under 45, the survey showed.

In other findings, the poll showed:

• 52% approve of Whitmer for her work as governor, higher than the 39% rating they gave President Joe Biden.
• 52% said Biden's policies have hurt Michigan's economy. Among likely voters who think the economy is the state's most important issue, Dixon is 10 points ahead of Whitmer, 55% to 45%.
• Whitmer is ahead by 36 points among voters who say abortion is the most important issue facing Michigan, 68% to 32%.

  The poll — conducted from Oct. 3-7 among 1,138 registered Michigan voters, has a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points.

Original Article

Arizona Senate Candidate Masters Threatens Government Shutdown Over Border (Newsmax)

By Charlie McCarthy | Monday, 10 October 2022 10:02 AM EDT

Arizona Republican Senate candidate Blake Masters threatened to play "hardball" with President Joe Biden over the southern border crisis.

Masters told The Washington Times that, if elected, he's willing to support a shutdown of the federal government to force Biden to address the crisis.

"I'm willing to go there," Masters told the Times during an interview in the border city of Nogales, Arizona.

Masters, running against Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., told the Times that Republicans should be willing to "play hardball."

"By exercising that leverage, I think we will win. I think he [Biden] will capitulate," added Masters, who in June was endorsed by former President Donald Trump.

Masters, a 36-year-old venture capitalist candidate, said that if Republicans stick together, they can force Biden to change course on the border by offering their votes in favor of spending bills to keep the federal government running.

"'Go ahead, Mr. President, your move.' What's he going to do? He's going to shut the government down and try to blame Republicans?" Masters told the Times.

"No, we're going to say, 'Hey, he's not securing the border.' If Biden wants to shut the government down and tell the American people that he'd prefer to do that over having border security, that's a political loser."

Although Kelly, a 58-year-old former astronaut, has tried to distance himself from Biden on immigration, Masters said Arizonans are choosing between the president's policies and a new direction.

Masters, a political newcomer, won the GOP nomination after getting a massive financial boost from billionaire Peter Thiel.

After a debate with Kelly last week, Masters told customers at a diner in Rio Rico, Arizona, that he had exposed Kelly.

"I said, 'Senator, did you do everything in your power the last two years to secure our southern border?' That is not a 'gotcha' question; that's a fair question," Masters said. "Now, it is a tough one for him to answer because if he says yes, well, he is confessing to be ineffective. If he says no, then, well … you're not trying to secure the border?

"His record is indefensible."

The Times reported that although pro-choice Kelly holds an advantage on the abortion issue, Masters has an edge on the economy, inflation, and immigration.

Migrant encounters are at all-time highs, with illegal drugs such as fentanyl pouring into the U.S. at record levels. The Times calculated that the migrant smuggling economy is now worth $20 billion a year.

Of roughly 200,000 illegal immigrants nabbed in the Border Patrol's Yuma sector since January, 95% were released, according to the local sheriff, the Times reported.

The Arizona U.S. Senate race also includes Libertarian Marc Victor, who pollsters say is a wild card in the race.

Original Article

Trump Hits Biden for 'Armageddon' Remark, Warns It's 'Exactly the Wrong' Message (Newsmax)

By Fran Beyer | Monday, 10 October 2022 07:47 AM EDT

President Joe Biden’s speculation about a possible “Armageddon” amid Russian President Vladimir Putin's threats of nuclear war is “exactly the wrong thing” to say, former President Donald Trump is warning.

Instead, the United States should be urging Russia and Ukraine to negotiate for peace to avoid an even more dire outcome for the more than 7-month-old war, Trump said at a Sunday rally in Arizona, the Washington Examiner reported.

"We have to be very smart and very nimble. We have to know what to say, what to do,” Trump cautioned, the news outlet reported. “And we are saying exactly the wrong thing. We’ll end up in a World War III.”

Trump has been critical of the Biden administration's response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — and leveled his latest volley after Biden’s remark last week that Ukraine’s military advances have pushed Putin to threaten nuclear action and raised the specter of an “Armageddon.”

“We have not faced the prospect of Armageddonsince Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis,” Biden said at a fundraiser, citing the 1962 standoff with the Soviet Union.

Trump insisted there is a way forward to avoid that crisis.

“We must demand immediate negotiation of a peaceful end to the war in Ukraine, or we will end up in World War III and there will never be a war like this,” Trump said at the Mesa, Arizona, rally. “We will never have had a war like this and that’s all because of stupid people that don’t have a clue. And it’s also because of the kind of weaponry that’s available today.”

"We have a president who is cognitively impaired and in no condition to lead our country," Trump said. "And is now casually talking about nuclear war with Russia, which would be World War III and far more devastating than any of the previous wars, because of the weaponry that no one even wants to think about or discuss."

The Washington Examiner reported that both Trump and GOP Senate hopeful Blake Masters took repeated aim at Sen Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., who has polled ahead in the tight race.

"The first step to restoring public safety is defeating the radical Democrats in November and that starts with throwing out your extreme senator, a weak man, Mark Kelly," Trump said. "He's tried his best to secure the border but in fact for the past two years, Mark Kelly has been deciding, and he's been that deciding 50th vote to rubber stamp every Bide-Pelosi-Schumer bill."

Original Article

Trump Hits Biden for 'Armageddon' Remark, Warns It's 'Exactly the Wrong' Message (Newsmax)

By Fran Beyer | Monday, 10 October 2022 08:20 AM EDT

President Joe Biden's speculation about a possible "Armageddon" amid Russian President Vladimir Putin's threats of nuclear war is "exactly the wrong thing" to say, former President Donald Trump is warning.

Instead, the United States should be urging Russia and Ukraine to negotiate for peace to avoid an even more dire outcome for the more than 7-month-old war, Trump said at a Sunday rally in Arizona, the Washington Examiner reported.

"We have to be very smart and very nimble. We have to know what to say, what to do," Trump cautioned, the news outlet reported. "And we are saying exactly the wrong thing. We'll end up in a World War III."

Trump has been critical of the Biden administration's response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine — and leveled his latest volley after Biden's remark last week that Ukraine's military advances have pushed Putin to threaten nuclear action and raised the specter of an "Armageddon."

"We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis," Biden said at a fundraiser, citing the 1962 standoff with the Soviet Union.

Trump insisted there is a way forward to avoid that crisis.

"We must demand immediate negotiation of a peaceful end to the war in Ukraine, or we will end up in World War III and there will never be a war like this," Trump said at the Mesa, Arizona, rally. "We will never have had a war like this, and that's all because of stupid people that don't have a clue. And it's also because of the kind of weaponry that's available today."

"We have a president who is cognitively impaired and in no condition to lead our country," Trump said. "And is now casually talking about nuclear war with Russia, which would be World War III and far more devastating than any of the previous wars, because of the weaponry that no one even wants to think about or discuss."

The Washington Examiner reported that both Trump and GOP Senate hopeful Blake Masters took repeated aim at Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., who has polled ahead in the tight race.

"The first step to restoring public safety is defeating the radical Democrats in November, and that starts with throwing out your extreme senator, a weak man, Mark Kelly," Trump said. "He's tried his best to secure the border but, in fact, for the past two years, Mark Kelly has been deciding, and he's been that deciding 50th vote to rubber stamp every Biden-Pelosi-Schumer bill."

Original Article

Republicans Disparage Poll Showing Rep. Boebert in Danger Rep. Lauren Boebert, R-Colo. (Getty)

By John Gizzi Monday, 10 October 2022 06:44 AM EDT Current | Bio | Archive

Democrats from Denver to the District of Columbia got a big boost last week, with a new poll of Colorado’s 3rd District showing controversial conservative Rep. Lauren Boebert in political danger.

According to a just-completed survey by Keating Research, multi-millionaire Democrat Adam Frisch is trailing freshman Republican Boebert by only 47% to 45% among likely voters district-wide.

The same poll in July gave Boebert the edge (49% to 42%) over Frisch, a former Aspen City councilman who styles himself a moderate in the mold of President Joe Biden.

Pollster Chris Keating, who has a long history of working for Democrats, explained that Frisch has been gaining among unaffiliated voters and now leads Boebert in that group by 57% to 32%.

In a district that is historically Republican, unaffiliated voters comprise 44% of the electorate.

Republicans aren’t buying it.

“Democrats have attacked Colorado’s oil and gas industry and destroyed the American economy," National Republican Congressional Committee spokeswoman Courtney Parella told the online publication Colorado Politics. "Democrats have zero chance of winning this district.”

Former State GOP Chairman Dick Wadhams told Newsmax “I do not believe it. That poll is just not accurate even though the pollster is legitimate. She has a very solid base of support and her Democratic opponent is from a liberal ski county which has little in common with the vast majority of the rest of the district.”

Famed as the owner of a pub in which waitresses carried firearms, Boebert, 35, has a record of controversial stands and statements. A born-again Christian, she has said she is “tired of all this separation of church and state junk,” that Critical Race Theory (CRT) is a lie and racist, and has supported former President Donald Trump in questioning the outcome of the 2020 election.

John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.

Original Article

US Banks Increase Midterm Donations to Democrats (AP)

Pete Schroeder Monday, 10 October 2022 06:17 AM EDT

U.S. banks are giving far less to federal candidates this election cycle and increasing the proportion they are handing to Democrats as they rethink their political giving, according to a Reuters analysis of data compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics (CRP) and more than half a dozen industry officials and lobbyists.

With less than a month to go until the mid-term elections which will determine control of Congress, commercial banks' political action committees (PACs) have given roughly $7.4 million to federal candidates, 43% down on the 2020 election cycle and 39% down on the average election spend in the previous decade, according to the Reuters analysis.

Following the 2007-09 financial crisis when Democrats cracked down on banks, lenders have typically looked to business-friendly Republicans for support in Congress.

But while they are getting less cash overall, Democrats have increased their share of the pie this cycle to 40%, their highest proportion since the 2010 cycle. And of the top-20 congressional recipients of bank PAC donations this cycle, 10 are Democrats compared with six in 2020, three in 2018, and one ahead of the 2016 election. The CRP data draws from data released by the Federal Election Commission as of Sept. 22.

The shift in giving patterns shows how banks are rethinking their allegiances amid increased political partisanship. A key turning point was the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol when supporters of Republican former President Donald Trump forcefully prevent Congress from certifying Democratic President Joe Biden's election win. Hours later, 147 Republicans voted to overturn Biden's victory, which Trump falsely claimed was tainted by fraud.
ESPOUSING LIBERAL CAUSES

It also suggests the industry is trying to court more Democrats as Republicans grow angry with lenders for embracing what they say are liberal causes.

"The vote on the election really caused people to open their eyes a little bit more…to do a closer evaluation of individuals that a PAC may have been supporting just because they supported [the industry]in the past," said James Ballentine, CEO of government relations firm Ballentine Strategies and until April a top lobbyist for the American Bankers Association which runs the biggest industry PAC.

To be sure, the party in power commonly enjoys a bounce in donations and banks are also spreading their bets ahead of a tightening contest, said Ballentine and the other sources.

Republicans have a 70% chance of winning the House of Representatives while Democrats are favorites to retain control of the Senate, according to poll-tracker FiveThirtyEight.com.

Since Jan. 6, many lenders have felt pressure from employees, who fund the PACs, to reduce giving to Republicans, the sources said.

Several banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup , Bank of America and Morgan Stanley, paused some or all PAC donations as they reviewed their strategies, which likely helps account for the decline in overall spend.

Bank of America and Morgan Stanley have each so far this cycle donated more to Democrats than Republicans for the first time in over a decade. Citigroup's contributions are evenly split for the first time. JPMorgan is still giving more to Republicans, but at the smallest margin in over a decade.

Spokespeople for the banks either declined to, or did not respond to requests for, comment.

FEWER ALLIES

Lenders are also under pressure from staff and shareholders to support lawmakers active on issues beyond finance, such as addressing the racial wealth gap and education, according to several sources.

The top Democratic congressional recipient of bank PAC money, for example, is Joyce Beatty, who chairs the House Financial Services panel's subcommittee on diversity and inclusion, an issue which banks have loudly championed.

That trend, combined with some banks shunning election objectors, has left the industry with fewer Republican allies overall, a dynamic that was on display when CEOs of the nation's largest banks appeared before Congress last month. They were skewered by some Republicans for their policies on doing business with gun companies and operating in China.

"It's a challenging spot to figure out who your allies are," said Brian Gardner, chief Washington policy strategist at Stifel Financial Corp. "The days when the largest banks could rely on Republicans for some level of defense, I think those days are over."

Nevertheless, banks are still courting Republicans. Nine of the top 10 recipients of industry donations are Republicans, including Representative Patrick McHenry who is likely to chair the House finance panel if Republicans win that chamber.

'HEDGING THEIR BETS'

Spokespeople for Beatty and McHenry did not respond to requests for comment.

"Banks that are active givers to political campaigns are hedging their bets," said Camden Fine, the former head of trade group the Independent Community Bankers of America and political consultant.

Original Article

Prosecutors Seek Prison for Rioter's Attack on AP Journalist In this Jan. 6, 2021, image from video, Alan William Byerly, center, is seen attacking an Associated Press photographer during a riot at the U.S. Capitol in Washington. (Julio Cortez/AP)

Associated Press Sunday, 09 October 2022 07:36 PM EDT

Federal prosecutors on Sunday recommended a prison sentence of approximately four years for a Pennsylvania man who pleaded guilty to assaulting an Associated Press photographer and using a stun gun against police officers during a mob's attack on the U.S. Capitol.

U.S. District Judge Randolph Moss is scheduled to sentence Alan Byerly on Oct. 21 for his attack on AP photographer John Minchillo and police during the Jan. 6, 2021, riot in Washington.

Sentencing guidelines recommend a prison term ranging from 37 to 46 months. Prosecutors are seeking a sentence of at least 46 months of imprisonment, followed by three years of supervised release. Byerly’s attorney has until Friday to submit a sentencing recommendation.

The judge isn't bound by any of the sentencing recommendations.

Byerly was arrested in July 2021 and pleaded guilty a year later to assault charges.

Byerly purchased a stun gun before he traveled from his home in Fleetwood, Pennsylvania, to Washington for the "Stop the Steal" rally on Jan. 6. Leaving the rally before then-President Donald Trump finished speaking, Byerly went to the Capitol and joined other rioters in using a large metal Trump sign as a battering ram against barricades and police officers, prosecutors said.

After that, he went to the Capitol's Lower West Terrace, where he and other rioters attacked Minchillo, who was wearing a lanyard with AP lettering. Byerly is one of at least three people charged with assaulting Minchillo, whose assault was captured on video by a colleague.

Byerly then approached police officers behind bike racks and deployed his stun gun.

"After officers successfully removed the stun gun from Byerly’s hands, Byerly continued to charge toward the officers, struck and pushed them, and grabbed an officer’s baton," prosecutors wrote.

Byerly later told FBI agents that he did just "one stupid thing down there and that’s all it was," according to prosecutors.

“This was a reference to how he handled the reporter and nothing more,” they wrote.

Byerly treated Jan. 6 "as a normal, crime-free day, akin to the movie, 'The Purge,' when he could do whatever he wanted without judgment or legal consequence," prosecutors said.

"He was mistaken," they added.

More than 100 police officers were injured during the Capitol siege.

Approximately 900 people have been charged with federal crimes for their conduct on Jan. 6. More than 400 of them have pleaded guilty, mostly to misdemeanor offenses. Over 280 riot defendants have been sentenced, with roughly half sentenced to terms of imprisonment ranging from one week to 10 years.

Rep. Don Bacon: I Support Herschel Walker but He Must 'Come Clean' (Newsmax)

By Sandy Fitzgerald | Sunday, 09 October 2022 01:48 PM EDT

Georgia Senate GOP nominee Herschel Walker, who has come under fire this week after claims that he allegedly paid for an ex-girlfriend's abortion despite his position on abortion restrictions, remains a valid candidate despite the controversy, but he should "come clean," Rep. Don Bacon said Sunday.

The Nebraska Republican, who is seeking reelection, told NBC's "Meet the Press" Sunday that he supports Walker for the policy positions he'll take, in comparison to those of his opponent, incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock.

"Sen. Warnock is one of the most liberal, progressive folks," said Bacon. "He wants abortion on demand until birth and only one in five voters support that."

But as for Walker, the former NFL star and Heisman Trophy winner "needs to come clean and just be honest," said Bacon.

"We also know that we all make mistakes and it's just better if this did happen to say, 'I'm sorry' and ask for forgiveness," he said.

Bacon disagreed when asked if by supporting Walker, that meant Republicans are willing to win at all costs and pointed out that Warnock has been accused of spousal abuse by his ex-wife.

"I hope you're showing some equal opportunity here with both these candidates," said Bacon.

The congressman also said Sunday he supports a proposal from Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. for a nationwide ban on abortions past the 15th week of pregnancy, and he said he thinks most voters support that as well.

However, Bacon said the Senate won't vote to pass that bill, so such decisions will have to be made at the state level, no matter which party holds the majority vote in the House or Senate.

"I believe in the humanity of the unborn child," he said. "I think the science has taken us way beyond where Roe v. Wade had us…most of the free world has left America behind. The free world has seen the science of the unborn child. And they've moved more towards a more reasonable policy of 12-15 weeks."

In the past, Bacon has argued that a fetus has constitutional rights at conception, but on Sunday, he said it's also important to move forward with legislation.

"The American voters right now are at 12-15 weeks," he said. "I accept that reality. And I want to move us forward."

Bacon, in further discussion, spoke out about President Joe Biden's assessment of an "armageddon" taking place if Russian President Vladimir Putin moves forward with nuclear weapons, and said he agrees the Russian leader is dangerous, as he is a "cornered animal."

"His country's being embarrassed not only by being defeated but the barbaric behavior of his country in Ukraine, stealing their grain, sexually assaulting their women, murdering those innocent people," Bacon said. "Right now, he's unstable. But you can't let this guy threaten us and bully us around. Because if you cave out of fear, he'll do it again."

But Biden was "too flippant" with his comments about "armageddon," and must be more cautious, said Bacon.

The congressman also on Sunday defended Sen. Tommy Tuberville, R-Ala., after the senator said during former President Donald Trump's rally Saturday that Democrats want reparations for minorities because their party is “pro-crime.”

"I wouldn't say it the same way, but there is a problem in our country with crime," he said while denying that the comment about reparations was racially-charged.

"We can't ignore we have a 40-50% violent crime increase because Democrat politicians and prosecutors are putting violent criminals back on the street early, and it's unacceptable," he said. "When a guy commits a crime the first time, shame on them. When society releases that same criminal and they create more victims, that's shame on us for letting that happen."

Original Article

Pompeo: Biden's 'Armageddon' Remark 'Reckless'; Keep 'Quiet Diplomacy' (Newsmax)

By Eric Mack | Sunday, 09 October 2022 01:10 PM EDT

President Joe Biden should not have abandoned "quiet diplomacy" and made the "reckless" remarks about the world being on the verge of "armageddon," according to former Trump Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

"Oh my goodness: First of all those comments were reckless," Pompeo told "Fox News Sunday."

"I think that even more importantly, they demonstrate maybe one of the greatest foreign policy failures of the last decades, which was the failure to deter Vladimir Putin in the same way that the Trump administration did for four years."

Pompeo adding the comments come at "a terrible risk to the American people" and Biden needs to warn Putin against using nuclear weapons but not talk armageddon.

"I hope that they are doing this quietly," Pompeo added.

Biden issued the warning of nuclear war Thursday in a fundraiser, hearkening back to former President John F. Kennedy's nuclear standoff with Cuba in October 1962.

"We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis," Biden said.

National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby defended the president's remark.

"The president was reflecting the very high stakes that are in play right now," Kirby told NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday.

The stakes might have been raised higher after the exploding of the bridge in Crimea on Saturday, according to Pompeo.

"My guess is that the Ukrainians had something to do with it, but we'll have to wait and see how that unfolds," he said. "We do know for sure that this is humiliating for Vladimir Putin. He built this bridge. I remember the pictures of him driving across it.

"It was one of their great achievements. I think it was 2018 when that bridge was built, so it's nearly brand new and to watch it in flames, to watch the rest of the supply lines out of Crimea into southern Ukraine at risk is certainly something that is a game changer on the ground in Ukraine. As Trey reported this morning, Ukrainians are doing phenomenal work of liberating town after town after town and the Russian military is failing desperately."

Original Article

Trump Pumps $750K for New Ad to Help Herschel Walker

By Eric Mack | Sunday, 09 October 2022 10:44 AM EDT

Amid a week of smears in a contentious Senate race in the purple state of Georgia, GOP Sen.-nominee Herschel Walker is getting a $750,000 boost from former President Donald Trump, Politico reported.

Trump has long endorsed his friend for the Senate, but this is the first true investment in the race from his new MAGA Inc. PAC, according to Politico.

The funds went to a new ad, attacking Democrats and Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., for helping America lose its way, albeit without mentioning Walker.

"From D-Day to drag queen story time, America has lost its way," the ad begins. "Radical Democrats are indoctrinating our children to hate America — opening our borders and crushing working people with taxes."

The 30-second ad reminds Georgia voters that Warnock "votes with Biden 96% of the time."

"Chaos at the border, crime in our neighborhoods, a collapsing economy – Biden and Warnock did that," the ad continues, using the phrase used on gas-pump stickers than point the finger at Biden for energy policy that has caused the price of gas to skyrocket.

"Take our country back. Defeat Raphael Warnock."

Walker has been attacked this week with reports he allegedly paid for an ex-girlfriend to have an abortion, which flies in the face of his position on abortion restrictions.

"This is just textbook 101 for the Democrats," Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., told Hugh Hewitt's podcast. "They know they're going to lose. Herschel Walker is running a good race. He's a great candidate."

Scott, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, noted President Joe Biden's struggling economy is unpopular to run on, so they lean on abortion and old political smear campaigns.

"Raphael Warnock is Joe Biden, and you know, it's just lies, cheat, and smear: That's what the Democrats do," Scott told Hewitt. "They did it to Brett Kavanaugh. They did it to Clarence Thomas. They're doing it to Herschel Walker. But he's going to win, and so we're going to win in Georgia."

Original Article

Polls Suggest Tight Race for Senate Majority, Perhaps Still 50-50 (Newmax)

By Eric Mack | Sunday, 09 October 2022 09:48 AM EDT

While the House is expected by many to flip back to Republicans to a varying degree, the 50-50 Senate remains in the balance, if not still split right down the middle, according to Politico analysis of the 10 key battleground races.

It sets up some interesting and likely big-dollar final weeks before Nov. 8 midterms' final votes are tallied.

"This is the strangest midterm I've ever been a part of, because you have these two things in direct conflict: You have what history tells us, and you have all this data that says it's going to be a very close election," Priorities USA Chair Guy Cecil, a Democrat group, told The New York Times.

Chair of the House Republican Conference, Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., is still predicting a "red tsunami" in the House.

"I think we can win over 35 seats, which would give us the largest majority since the Great Depression," she told the Times.

But the Senate remains teetering on split decision.

"Even the slightest tremor is going to put the Democrats in the minority," Democrat pollster Peter Hart told the Times.

Here are the 10 Senate races that can decide the majority:

1. Arizona – Blake Masters v. Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz.

• Politico projection: Lean Democrat
• Polling average: Kelly +4.1
• 2020 RCP polling average 30 days before election: Biden +3.6
• Eventual margin: Biden +0.3

Kelly has consistently led the polls, but recent ones suggest Masters is gaining ground and just outside the margin of error. Former President Donald Trump has endorsed Masters and is heading to Mesa, Arizona, on Sunday night for a Save America rally to stump for Masters, Gov.-nominee Kari Lake, among others.

2. Georgia – Herschel Walker v. Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga.

• Politico projection: Toss up
• Polling average: Warnock +3.8 … but this number has a outlier poll that has Warnock up 12 points. This is much closer and in the margin of error.
• 2020 RCP polling average: Biden +0.3
• Eventual margin: Biden +0.3

If you need any indicated on how fearful Democrats are about losing this seat, just look at the headlines. Walker has been smeared of late.

"This is just textbook 101 for the Democrats," Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., told Hugh Hewitt's podcast. "They know they're going to lose. Herschel Walker is running a good race. He's a great candidate.

"Raphael Warnock is Joe Biden, and you know, it's just lies, cheat, and smear: That's what the Democrats do. They did it to Brett Kavanaugh. They did it to Clarence Thomas. They're doing it to Herschel Walker. But he's going to win, and so we're going to win in Georgia."

3. Nevada – Adam Laxalt v. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Ariz.

• Politico projection: Toss up
• Polling average: Laxalt 2.1
• 2020 RCP polling average: Biden +5.3
• Eventual margin: Biden +2.7

Laxalt, who Trump held a Save America rally Saturday night for, has led consistently, but his leads remain mostly within the margin of error, making voter turnout key to deciding this seat.

4. Ohio – J.D. Vance v. Rep. Tim Ryan, D-Ohio

• Politico projection: Lean Republican
• Polling average: Vance +1.2
• 2020 RCP polling average: Biden +2.5
• Eventual margin: Trump +8

Ohio is famously a bellwether state, despite the fact Trump dominated in 2020 and President Joe Biden won the Electoral College. This seat is not a flip, but it is a key state to hold for Republicans. Polls are showing some surprising strength for Ryan, who is attempting to appeal to voters as a moderate Democrat, despite years of being a hard-liner to the left.

5. Pennsylvania – Dr. Mehmet Oz v. Democrat Lt. Gov. John Fetterman

• Politico projection: Toss up
• Polling average: Fetterman +4.3
• 2020 RCP polling average: Biden +6.6
• Eventual margin: Biden +1.2

Oz is surging amid questions about Fetterman's health and struggles with public speaking. Also, Oz has wide appeal with his famed television persona. A debate could be must-see TV. This has been projected to be one of the biggest-dollar races in these midterms, as Democrats seek to flip this seat in what has become a Democrat-run state.

6. New Hampshire – Don Bolduc v. Sen. Maggie Hassan, D-N.H.

• Politico projection: Lean Democrat
• Polling average: Hassan +6.6
• 2020 RCP polling average: No average
• Eventual margin: Biden +7.2

Unlike the five GOP candidates above, Bolduc has yet to receive the official Trump endorsement, although Trump has called Bolduc "a strong guy." Despite the margins favorable to Democrats, The Trafalgar Group, one of the most accurate pollsters in the Trump era, has this race just outside the margin of error. A Trump endorsement could prove to be a game-changer.

7. Colorado – Joe O'Dea v. Sen. Michael Bennet, D-Colo.

• Politico projection: Lean Democrat
• Polling average: Bennet +8.3
• 2020 RCP polling average: No average
• Eventual margin: Biden +13.5

Colorado is not quite a state favorable for the Republicans to flip a seat, but there are rumblings among the GOP that O'Dea is sleeper candidate. The polls have yet to show true strength, though. Notably, Bennet is a failed Democrat presidential candidate like Ohio's Ryan and Bennet won his past two elections with a mere plurality of the vote, giving O'Dea some hope for a push to close ground in the final weeks. Trump has not endorsed O'Dea.

8. North Carolina – Rep. Ted Budd, R-N.C. v. Cheri Beasley

• Politico projection: Lean Republican
• Polling average: Budd +1.5
• 2020 RCP polling average: Biden +0.6
• Eventual margin: Trump +1.3

All of September's major polls favor Budd, who is the first GOP candidate on this list to already have won a seat in Washington, D.C. Notably, polls have this race with double-digit percentages of voters still undecided. This is a seat the GOP will be seeking to hold, so expect Trump to make some appearances for his endorsed candidate in the final weeks.

9. Wisconsin – Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wisc., v. Mandela Barnes

• Politico projection: Toss Up
• Polling average: Johnson +3
• 2020 RCP polling average: Biden +6
• Eventual margin: Biden +0.7

Johnson is the first GOP incumbent on this list in a tenuous position, largely because the blue-wall state of Wisconsin has some strength for Democrats, albeit more in polling than in actual election results. Trump has outperformed polls and mocked them repeatedly for failing to capture the electorate in the state.

10. Florida – Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., v. Rep. Val Demings, D-Fla.

• Politico projection: Lean Republican
• Polling average: Rubio +4
• 2020 RCP polling average: Biden +3.5
• Eventual margin: Trump +3.3

Florida has surged in Republican registrations, suggesting Rubio should be on steady ground, but Demings has been popular in the state, particularly in the Orlando area. Republican turnout and performance in South Florida will be the key to holding this seat.

Center for American Progress Action Fund President Navin Nayak told the Times that Democrats have "no business being in this election," perhaps due to Biden's struggles, a shaky economy, and rampant inflation.

"I wish the election was a month ago," Nayak told the Times.

Abortion is an issue Democrats are clinging to, as they seek to overcome the historic hurdle of a midterm wave against the party seated in the White House.

"The Democrats' message is, 'Elect Republicans and the sky may fall!'" GOP strategist Paul Shumaker told the Times, adding voters "see the sky is falling — all because of Joe Biden's bad economy. The increase in prices at the grocery store is an everyday fact of life."

Original Article